Taiwan stock market commentator Zhang Zhen delivered another blunt session on his program “Zhang Zhen’s Tutoring Class,” dissecting recent moves in heavyweight Taiwan stocks including TSMC, Foxconn, MediaTek, and Yageo. Known for his no-nonsense style, Zhang used the segment to defend his earlier bullish call near the market bottom, explain why he refuses to chase certain hot stocks, and lay out specific technical levels for names like AES-KY, Delta Electronics, and Kinsus Interconnect Technology.
Judging an Analyst by How They Call the Bottom
Zhang opened by arguing that the real test of whether an analyst can actually read the market is what they say on the day of a crash. He recalled that when the index was plunging and some commentators were shouting that a collapse to the 38,000 level was imminent, telling viewers to “run,” he instead told his audience that anything bought below 45,063 was an oversold buying opportunity. With the quarter-end sector rotation underway, he noted the stakes are high: get the switch right and profits soar, get it wrong and the pain is severe.
He also pushed back on short-term traders who expect same-day profits. “If you tell me you want to buy today and profit today, I can find you that trade easily — but what about tomorrow?” he asked, framing his approach as one built around discipline rather than lucky timing.
Why He Won’t Touch Yageo
Zhang was explicit that he sells into strength and never sells during a downturn. He said his personal rule is straightforward: buy under NT$100, sell above NT$110 — and challenged anyone who’s lost money following that approach to come find him.
On Yageo, he was equally direct. When asked why he wouldn’t buy the passive components giant, he said he has no interest in adding to the wealth of someone who is already Taiwan’s richest man. His decision, he emphasized, isn’t based on insider information but on what he called a disciplined, rational read of the market.
Holding TSMC Through Earnings
Despite TSMC dropping NT$50 on Friday, June 26, Zhang maintained his stance that the chip giant is a “non-sellable” core holding. He argued that anyone who dumps TSMC on a single down day simply isn’t suited to stock trading. His advice was to keep holding through the upcoming earnings report and investor conference, where he predicted gross margin would land around 69% to 70% — a figure he said would likely trigger a wave of buying once confirmed.
By contrast, he said Foxconn isn’t ready to buy yet, since the stock hasn’t touched its quarterly moving average — a technical threshold he won’t cross before entering a position.
MediaTek’s Rally: A Warning About Chasing Upgrades
Zhang reserved some of his sharpest words for MediaTek, saying he wouldn’t even look at the stock despite its sharp rally. He attributed the jump to Macquarie Securities raising its price target to NT$10,000, and warned investors against blindly following bank upgrades. He questioned why so many analysts were celebrating the rally while staying silent about the roughly NT$300 drop the stock suffered just days earlier on Friday. In his technical read, the bounce was simply MediaTek filling a gap left by the prior sell-off, and he cautioned that another leg down could follow once the gap is closed. His conclusion: MediaTek is not a buy right now.
Reading the Charts: AES-KY, Lite-On Semiconductor, Delta Electronics, and Kinsus
Turning to smaller names, Zhang flagged AES-KY as a stock nearing a breakout, saying a move above NT$1,205 should be chased, since he tracks each stock’s key technical levels closely.
He was more skeptical about several other movers:
- Lite-On Semiconductor (Li-Chih, 6719): He described its recent rally as a “dead-cat bounce,” warning that holders who don’t sell into the strength risk losing their gains.
- Delta Electronics (2308): After breaking below its quarterly moving average and bouncing back to it, Zhang said this is clearly a level to sell, not buy.
- Kinsus Interconnect Technology (2368): Following a similar pattern — a break below the quarterly average followed by a rebound to it — Zhang said this is also a level to exit rather than enter.
He criticized commentators who chase price action and only highlight positive fundamentals after a stock has already rallied, suggesting that basic fundamental commentary is now something AI tools can provide just as easily, raising the question of why investors need a traditional analyst at all for that kind of surface-level analysis.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Zhang Zhen’s commentary underscores a consistent investment philosophy: buy into oversold weakness, hold core positions like TSMC through binary catalysts such as earnings, and avoid chasing stocks purely because of a headline price-target upgrade or a short-term bounce. His skepticism toward MediaTek’s rally and his technical-level-driven view on stocks like Delta Electronics and Kinsus Interconnect reflect a broader caution against momentum-driven buying near resistance levels formed by moving averages.
As with any market commentary, viewers should treat these as one analyst’s opinions and conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions, particularly given the volatility across Taiwan’s semiconductor and electronics sectors.
References
- Video source: YouTube Live Broadcast
- News source: 168 TV News, 168 Weekly, 168 Financial Network, 168 Facebook
- 168 Financial Network: https://www.168abc.net/_News/List.aspx
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